Probability distribution forecast

1. The probability distribution forecast underlying the internal model shall assign probabilities to changes in either the amount of basic own funds of the insurance or reinsurance undertaking or to other monetary amounts, such as profit and loss, provided that those monetary amounts can be used to determine the changes in basic own funds. The exhaustive set of mutually exclusive future events, referred to in Article 13(38) of Directive 2009/138/EC, shall contain a sufficient number of events to reflect the risk profile of the undertaking.

2. Insurance and reinsurance undertakings shall calculate the probability distribution forecast of a partial internal model at the highest level of aggregation of the components of the partial internal model. If a partial internal model consists of different components which are separately calculated and not aggregated within the partial internal model, the probability distribution forecast shall be calculated for each component.